# Four Possible Futures for the European Union

The European Union is navigating a critical geopolitical inflection point, and its trajectory over the next decade will likely follow one of four distinct scenarios: an integrated strategic powerhouse, a fractured and protectionist fortress, a multi-speed union operating through specialized coalitions, or a marginalized vassal dependent on external superpowers. Driven by the protracted conflict in Ukraine, aggressive trade postures from the United States and China, and intense internal political polarization, European leaders are currently making irreversible decisions that will dictate whether the bloc consolidates its federal power or unravels into competing national interests. 

## The End of Strategic Comfort

For over seven decades, the European project was constructed on the assumption of externally guaranteed peace and the prioritization of economic integration over military capability [cite: 1]. Under this paradigm, the United States provided a reliable security umbrella through the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), the Russian Federation supplied cheap and abundant energy resources, and the People's Republic of China offered a continuously expanding export market for European manufactured goods. 

By the mid-2020s, every foundational pillar of that established global order had fractured.

The full-scale invasion of Ukraine delivered a profound strategic shock, forcing the European Union to rapidly transition from a foreign policy based on regulatory influence and soft power to a geopolitics rooted in hard power and military readiness [cite: 2]. Concurrently, the global economic environment has grown increasingly hostile. The European baseline economic forecast for 2025 anticipates relatively sluggish real GDP growth of approximately 1.1%, further complicated by aggressive deregulation and steep tariff policies from a second Donald Trump administration in the United States [cite: 3, 4]. The potential output impact of heightened US tariffs alone is projected to reduce the European Union's GDP by 0.1% to 0.35% [cite: 3]. 

Internally, the political landscape is equally turbulent. The June 2024 European Parliament elections resulted in a distinct ideological shift to the right [cite: 5]. While a centrist, pro-European coalition retained a functional majority, the substantial surge in nationalist and populist representatives has drastically increased resistance to sweeping environmental mandates and centralized authority from Brussels [cite: 6, 7]. This polarization has manifested in frequent legislative deadlocks, with member states such as Hungary and Slovakia repeatedly utilizing their veto powers to stall critical foreign policy directives, Russian sanctions, and financial aid packages for Ukraine [cite: 8, 9].

In response to these compounding systemic pressures—often described by policymakers as a "permacrisis"—major European think tanks, including the Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), Bruegel, and the European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS), have extensively modeled how the continent might evolve leading up to 2030 and beyond [cite: 3, 10, 11]. Synthesizing their foresight research alongside active legislative frameworks reveals four primary scenarios for the future of the European Union.

## Scenario 1: The Integrated Powerhouse

In this highly optimistic scenario, frequently referred to in policy circles as the "Optimistic New Deal" or "Doing Much More Together," the severe and compounding crises of the current decade act as a catalyst for a historic leap in federal integration [cite: 10, 12]. Recognizing that no single member state possesses the scale to survive the geopolitical pressures of a multipolar world independently, national capitals willingly cede unprecedented sovereignty to central European institutions.

### The Realization of a True European Defense Union

The cornerstone of this integrated future is the successful establishment of a fully realized European Defense Union. Shaken by the unreliability of American security guarantees and persistent Russian aggression, the European Union successfully executes its ambitious "ReArm Europe/Readiness 2030" plan [cite: 13, 14]. The bloc manages to mobilize a targeted €800 billion in defense investments [cite: 14, 15]. 

This mobilization is heavily facilitated by the Security Action for Europe (SAFE) instrument, which provides €150 billion in loans backed by the shared European Union budget [cite: 15]. Rather than duplicating efforts across 27 disparate national armies, member states utilize these funds for the joint procurement of advanced ammunition, drone technology, and integrated air and missile defense systems [cite: 15, 16]. Fragmented national defense industries are forced to consolidate, creating a cohesive European technological and industrial defense base capable of competing with American and Chinese conglomerates [cite: 17, 18].

### Economic and Regulatory Dominance

Economically, the bloc successfully finalizes the long-stalled Capital Markets Union (CMU). By harmonizing cross-border financial regulations, the European Union unlocks an estimated €37 trillion in stagnant European household savings, channeling this massive pool of capital into domestic technology startups, artificial intelligence innovation, and the green energy transition [cite: 19]. 

In this scenario, the "Brussels Effect"—the phenomenon whereby European regulations become global standards—reaches its zenith. The European Union Artificial Intelligence Act (EU AI Act), the world's first comprehensive legal framework on artificial intelligence, becomes the definitive global benchmark [cite: 20, 21]. American and Asian technology giants are forced to comply with strict European data governance and ethics rules to maintain access to the continent's 450 million affluent consumers [cite: 22, 23]. 

| AI Risk Category | Regulatory Requirements under the EU AI Act | Compliance Timeline |
| :--- | :--- | :--- |
| **Unacceptable Risk** | Complete prohibition (e.g., real-time public facial recognition by law enforcement, social scoring systems, subliminal manipulation). | Enforceable as of February 2025. |
| **High Risk** | Mandatory conformity assessments, strict risk management, human oversight, and data governance (e.g., AI in critical infrastructure, employment, healthcare). | Enforceable by August 2026. |
| **Transparency Risk** | Mandatory disclosure requirements indicating to users that they are interacting with an AI or viewing synthetic content (deepfakes). | Enforceable by August 2026. |
| **Minimal Risk** | No mandatory regulatory requirements; voluntary adherence to ethical codes of conduct is encouraged (e.g., spam filters, video game AI). | Immediate and ongoing. |

Through the successful deployment of these regulations and the unification of its capital markets, the European Union secures its position at the geopolitical table as an equal superpower alongside the United States and China, possessing the capacity to dictate global terms rather than merely reacting to them.

## Scenario 2: The Fragmented Fortress

Standing in stark contrast to deep integration, the "Fragmented Fortress" scenario envisions a European Union paralyzed by internal divisions, economic stagnation, and a pervasive surge in right-wing populism. Termed "Nothing but the Single Market" in European Commission foresight analysis, this trajectory sees the bloc stripped back to its most basic economic and trading functions [cite: 10, 12].

### The Resurgence of National Sovereignty

Driven by nationalist victories in domestic elections and intense public backlash against the perceived overreach of Brussels, member states aggressively claw back their sovereignty. Ambitious continent-wide transformational projects, particularly the European Green Deal, are severely watered down or entirely abandoned [cite: 6]. Member states prioritize national industrial protectionism over collective climate goals, leading to a fragmented regulatory environment that discourages intra-European investment [cite: 5, 19]. 

The concept of seamless continental mobility is also compromised. Freedom of movement is heavily curtailed as countries permanently reinstate strict national border checks to independently manage migration flows and security threats, effectively unwinding the Schengen Area as it was originally designed [cite: 24]. 

### A Weakened Geopolitical and Economic Actor

In this fragmented future, the European Defense Union completely fails to materialize. Nations refuse to pool their military budgets or coordinate defense procurement, resulting in severe duplication of efforts and continued reliance on a fractured, inefficient domestic defense industry [cite: 18, 25]. Without a unified foreign and security policy, the European Union cannot stand up to economic coercion from either Washington or Beijing. 

Individual member states engage in a "race to the bottom," cutting bilateral deals with China to secure necessary investments and critical technologies, further undermining the bloc's collective bargaining power [cite: 24]. Simultaneously, the euro currency struggles to maintain its viability as a global reserve currency. The lack of a completed banking union, coupled with highly divergent national debt levels and the absence of a shared, risk-free European sovereign asset, leaves the eurozone structurally vulnerable to localized financial shocks [cite: 26, 27]. 

## Scenario 3: The Multi-Speed Compromise

Perhaps the most pragmatic, yet legally complex, trajectory is the "Multi-Speed Compromise," officially designated in strategic documents as "Those Who Want More Do More" [cite: 12]. In this future, European leadership accepts that achieving unanimous consensus among 27 highly diverse member states is no longer viable. Instead, the bloc formalizes a system of differentiated integration.

### Institutional Workarounds and Bypassing the Veto

The early warning signs of this scenario are already highly visible in the mid-2020s. The European Union's governance model has been repeatedly frustrated by the ability of single nations to veto critical foreign policy directives. For example, Hungary has utilized its veto power 19 times in recent years, while Slovakia has also wielded vetoes to block sanctions and financial aid intended for Ukraine [cite: 8]. 

To overcome this paralysis, European leaders increasingly utilize complex legal workarounds. By invoking "enhanced cooperation" mechanisms and utilizing obscure clauses like Article 122 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union, coalitions of willing member states bypass dissenting capitals [cite: 8]. A prime example of this tactic occurred in late 2025, when the European Union indefinitely froze Russian central bank assets using emergency procedures, deliberately circumventing the vetoes of Moscow-friendly governments in Budapest and Bratislava to secure funding for Ukraine's reconstruction [cite: 9].

### A Europe of Concentric Circles

Over time, this reliance on ad-hoc coalitions results in a deeply layered and complex Europe. A core group of highly integrated nations—primarily Western and Northern European states—cooperates deeply on military operations, shared taxation, and advanced technology regulations [cite: 24, 28]. 

Meanwhile, a peripheral tier of nations participates only in the foundational single market and basic customs agreements. While this multi-speed approach prevents the total paralysis of the union and allows for crucial progress on defense and economic policy, it creates massive bureaucratic complexity. Furthermore, it risks alienating citizens in the outer tiers, exacerbating the divide between Eastern and Western Europe and continually straining the overarching narrative of European unity [cite: 25].

## Scenario 4: The Squeezed Vassal

The darkest scenario for Brussels—outlined in deep-dive analyses by Bruegel and CEPS as the "World of Blocs," "Overdependence," or the "Chinese Province" model—envisions a future where Europe loses its strategic agency entirely [cite: 3, 10, 29]. In this trajectory, the European Union is systematically crushed by the sheer weight of external geopolitical forces and its own chronic inability to scale vital industries.

### Technological and Economic Irrelevance

Despite possessing ambitious regulatory frameworks, the European Union fails to commercialize next-generation technologies. While the AI Act succeeds in regulating artificial intelligence, the continent fails to cultivate homegrown technological champions. This leaves European businesses and critical infrastructure entirely dependent on American software monopolies and Chinese hardware manufacturing [cite: 23, 29]. 

In the automotive sector, sluggish domestic electrification efforts and high energy costs allow heavily subsidized Chinese electric vehicles to capture vast shares of the European market, effectively hollowing out the continent's most vital advanced manufacturing base [cite: 29, 30].

### Subservience in a Multipolar World

Facing intense pressure from a transactional United States administration that wields tariffs as weapons and demands steep economic concessions in exchange for continued NATO protection, Europe is reduced to a geopolitical vassal [cite: 3, 31]. The continent's defense apparatus remains structurally reliant on American systems, intelligence, and command structures, as internal defense initiatives fail to generate sufficient industrial capacity [cite: 1, 32]. 

Simultaneously, the global landscape shifts away from Western dominance. The expansion of the BRICS+ coalition—which grew in 2024 to include Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, and Ethiopia, followed by Indonesia in 2025—represents a formidable non-Western bloc controlling a massive share of the world's population, GDP, and critical energy resources [cite: 33, 34]. As powers like India leverage their strategic autonomy and leadership within the Global South, the European Union finds itself isolated [cite: 34, 35]. Unable to form a unified diplomatic front, European nations are picked off individually by the superpowers, rendering the bloc irrelevant as a cohesive geopolitical actor [cite: 4, 36].

## Comparative Analysis of the Four Scenarios

To accurately assess how these varying futures diverge, it is necessary to compare how each scenario would theoretically handle the continent's most pressing structural functions.

| Policy Domain | Scenario 1: Integrated Powerhouse | Scenario 2: Fragmented Fortress | Scenario 3: Multi-Speed Compromise | Scenario 4: Squeezed Vassal |
| :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- |
| **Defense Strategy** | Unified Defense Union; shared borrowing funds the €800B Readiness 2030 plan. | Re-nationalized defense; reliance on fragmented, duplicated local industries. | "Coalitions of the Willing" drive military cooperation without full consensus. | Permanent reliance on the US security umbrella amid shrinking budgets. |
| **Economic Policy** | Capital Markets Union achieved; EU tech regulations become global standards. | Return to a basic Single Market; protectionist, scaled-back climate goals. | Core states integrate banking; periphery states lag behind economically. | Overwhelmed by US and Chinese tech/manufacturing; high dependency. |
| **Decision-Making** | Vetoes abolished in foreign policy; qualified majority voting rules supreme. | Unanimous voting preserved; institutional gridlock heavily favors the status quo. | Frequent use of legal workarounds (e.g., Article 122) to bypass dissenting states. | Paralyzed by internal vetoes; foreign policy dictated by external powers. |

## Early Warning Signs and Strategic Indicators

Which of these four scenarios ultimately materializes will not be decided in a single dramatic moment, but rather through a series of critical policy flashpoints unfolding between 2026 and 2030. Strategic analysts are closely monitoring several early warning signs to determine the European Union's trajectory.

### The Execution of REPowerEU and Energy Independence

The European Union's ability to permanently sever its reliance on Russian fossil fuels is a primary indicator of its capacity for deep integration. The REPowerEU roadmap establishes a legally binding timeline for complete energy independence from Moscow [cite: 37, 38]. The bloc has already reduced its dependency on Russian gas from 45% of overall imports prior to the war to just 12% in 2025 [cite: 39]. 

| REPowerEU Regulatory Timeline | Target Action |
| :--- | :--- |
| **February 2026** | REPowerEU Regulation (EU/261/2026) officially enters into force. |
| **April 2026** | Ban on short-term Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) import contracts takes effect. |
| **June 2026** | Ban on short-term natural gas pipeline contracts takes effect. |
| **January 2027** | Complete ban on long-term LNG import contracts. |
| **September 2027** | Complete termination of natural gas imports via pipelines under long-term contracts. |

If member states successfully navigate these deadlines without suffering catastrophic energy inflation, it will signal a massive victory for European resilience (Scenario 1). Conversely, if nations face severe energy shortages and break ranks to secure cheap Russian gas—a risk highlighted by Slovakia taking the EU to court over the gas import bans—it will signal deep fragmentation (Scenario 2) [cite: 40].

### The Funding Mechanisms for Defense Readiness

The European Commission's ambition to unlock €800 billion for defense modernization hinges entirely on how that capital is raised. Early warning signs of a failing defense union include slower contract nominations, delivery delays, and political speeches that outpace actual procurement funding [cite: 16]. If member states agree to utilize the SAFE instrument through joint European borrowing, it indicates a strong shift toward federal integration [cite: 15]. However, if fiscally conservative nations absolutely refuse the issuance of joint "defense bonds," the bloc will inevitably slide toward the Fragmented Fortress or Squeezed Vassal scenarios, unable to finance its own security [cite: 17, 41].

### Transatlantic Trade and Geopolitical Pushback

How the European Union responds to intense economic and diplomatic pressure from the United States will test its geopolitical maturity. In the face of aggressive US tariffs, extraterritorial sanctions, and demands for regulatory alignment, Europe has a choice. A coordinated, robust response that utilizes the European Union's anti-coercion instruments points toward true strategic autonomy [cite: 31, 42]. However, if individual capitals default to bilateral appeasement, offering concessions to Washington to protect narrow domestic industries, the European Union will effectively confirm its status as a geopolitical subordinate [cite: 4, 36].

## Bottom line

The European Union's future is no longer guaranteed to follow a linear path of "ever-closer union." Facing severe external military and economic threats, alongside intense internal populist pressures, the bloc is actively deciding whether to pool its resources into a formidable, integrated superpower, or fracture into a loose trading area vulnerable to the whims of the United States and China. While the exact outcome remains uncertain, the increasing use of legal loopholes by core states to bypass veto-wielding members suggests that, in the near term, a messy, multi-speed Europe is the most likely mechanism to prevent total institutional paralysis.

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10. [ceps.eu](https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGWKuA4d4y0CUp2NdhClyOi4S_JvxYa04aLJAS62P7W-l7BknR1DvbahQ2hPOp3WmrpSHdD573n7PiPs8sKiuSXtHFQJanhqto5duOd4g1tE6XZDq7JDoz7f405bvN69laLIDRxNnAWYuVKL7yZ4sLgl85Oxyhv4S3LfWfKdkxoZ7-bubBV62k9UtCrjNexajNnd_aSO_8sdzK-yWEh_6jF)
11. [europa.eu](https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEF46j0JyqLrYF9QyI41lnICKCVLFzXoc9VdyM7WiKnDcY2lesGuCjSutAVdAFmsze4fpyoBRWFsx3hAd9yRgw0hijYSs5w6zSM7_GO2uCgYnHxsaSdJGGdgzUGss7jfBQLL5dU6UKNt7E258nlXTwT6QtOE-Tjvsc8cnFjFfg=)
12. [cesi.org](https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHX9wMYJ5OTEjbQYNGD25ilzUbWIIkflUmxnRX5RFQ0qLGdJlppeBvbnr-XAhUIqFHsUdh8Q7VHRb5JxobRH2zCzHsvCZ1j0CMGrrihpIfE-p3O8Wq4-ua74bwQkbzLlym06koWDcf8dKjCJ2eOGDnAqEG5Mf-m5B3lKn1w6In7w1P7fkHRYgjVDoGvYJheN2O46g==)
13. [europa.eu](https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFHBYjk6at3u9hOKQ2BM9UAFQgZWOIRp6AtTB2xeBFToXRGAjKIoTFqP4E10X7CWO8Jb509AvALAdbtnLnPyKrORDIQF_F0NbX93yCbf6M-XTRRVRCsO163e9WvKp6jwWwnRDv7muMr1Zw2Ulku5iaH-t-JkQWvS8ky8EA=)
14. [moderndiplomacy.eu](https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGogZ-Y9lVAd_aQ6kiIRjIKFerUIFu-4UmB-0Wf60S0IvgyNMdJzmGgGUdvgE7qKv3NJ9AUDeTkKdLCkf_nvIi42FeKpWC9CVfw1zW6N_D6DwUDdluEI0zR2tqewyECCI3HLtc8VjRBJgiQUA0AyLmf9jwpmCF__cF4YHtoUW04jAoCffMImK5lYzEC1aUMGG_1j1Ob4jmesYpqbYdbNvJ3)
15. [europa.eu](https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEdTuXBBVIcbyZIbbloJsr9vjZi6_I6XhZ3WJjLItcxtvrUFv7l0d0vfuaS08Owpo_2bTKK9AZt3xTVAhX_7xwqdj5d8JC1X90vEA2flau1eIjHmHHypesv29qNNPETBdVsrqBBUbQGg8YBViVtSqaymR3Dg30Jmw==)
16. [home.saxo](https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEoxs8gCzEn6Sj5hOjgEeLKzMeep6SWN9-lvmWiXMgU7o6sHMAyjexBoCTqpsRRgqZUERdKE7tX1HIlyvawAcvEsNix11RvCBIaRkg2V5lOmulIghtcZss-Lqm80DKHSiLVbqg4lX4EFuux2G9Wd2DuSOsGN65CndFJmpAtQD3jQ_4P)
17. [cer.eu](https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFrwRodagR3y2rHgC2DhvgUUnT5PFe9WLiVnNdzxaHupENoTSWfWilLw5IPxkOZKKoHQGNsp0Mai2RojAuA0sFq2sX-Cyk4d55uVi8swLEtpesEjrLOuVNPjqR-j2iZTBj2qRagh7MFSJ74Cr_bUvFZLXN31D-A8nPNW4La-Yo2Iq7VwFP8rd4=)
18. [warontherocks.com](https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHmqRvoNM1Tn9IMpIWBQ2qrRVA58TcbVzwV7ndsEDwUG0IR7r_3eaUb_ZAomKH8asWeWe6z_V-mxvUXXdM1a0NUSAcRXxE2tiYOtHxnJPwW7wiWJvZjFVCyOTQn4yzkCbFyBQFG98FaYOfS3hYgeDAbpi7YoqNQBs44-2B-UAK0BhdE91TMbP1GtzwM9DsMlmU=)
19. [weforum.org](https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEXXGP7Hvu8pctgr2wtNwl-m95xRilBHTxuW1PfDmDNbVDoyU0lCBv_55Dp94S7YuQLYQAd365kmCAg2U7OfjOb4XGVXO9z77U7sGAsm6kK9bIqb_IBWYQ62Aop3mEnyfzkK2iiMpFPpNYEzwZrkRjDz1jxMQ3oQZlvlelSFQbRVJDouMUYTpG2gsZoyRU-MW9S17361zVF4R_UVyyYHA==)
20. [medium.com](https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGjEXhSyOuWc35ohP0rFImLXUWSx2L0qXdJoeWvUghfkanaJ9hVP7WQRAboFIrlKD99Op4VPsY_70a9LrABigsOKE0iAu7rgzTRfH-ktdLHZIPMCh902WJIzsiPwQiSKhHrlF3dar_Y83DFGG-AUcdgP7HQTxRlCsmIjb0pvBTlSZN_zEBPucElMb4TpAxSc0DASA9KcZYgcNUj1KuLgWpxCUE8oGQrLXyumiy4MXdG22Uui9CsGw==)
21. [europa.eu](https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGhvxDhPWOOs6ftPuKam47WYfQWW2o6KjXzUiwp-Jx-4Fv9aZwSUGfWSk0GtK3uVVJ19ujAye4q9hoQUINFLEOq7OqGeQ3MhLP0tMaMGXwpqxsR0GW7M_t2Shi__QY1WgvkaXql-qL6dIkAojWM_zQGSifOpeTPRw54k-cdIwE=)
22. [iccwbo.nl](https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGcpbH5t9p4eOtbgFZfRWqBxNP9VvGcUAfyyunj-k-_H8UTJIyX863dcf9N8Y7dAxH_pbr58Hci-BbKDtjeC63nFTrYFQnhQnj5ziDe20QRu8TRrC5yjC6IDJPrTGVxe8g7dOLnOodDK5cywK_APBbwJgFyJ8AtNkHMLC2P4XhR_vJ88InliFSh585nt4pVPfsB_9_h1-7sLUVG30ZZtlR0v31zu5NNsjqUBF4ozSXVmmG4R3yn4Oew1FCzT5bzpXhdMljTgn35Sa0eYIE=)
23. [ox.ac.uk](https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFm9mxJQn-fUziiwk71lhUW9JBCxsS4PbW9cA4CP1QRHE7OzZeKklv9AzrgT40m8OoW1OyKO6wjgIY5OaUKP_qIIbn07hfnYDRFkwpRUpWtviqA_0ngCgTScrDSNZ0DACuNay_mc-mVbLdNFGlhO4jWkM5Uh10C-s1z_b3f69Vl26EQKeelE1UmoYGeYYF8gDu70sTNfrPsF4s-FJT8iBU=)
24. [cifs.dk](https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHRxPXRyGy0FtS1pmccWwDp94xE_ljbUDslWa2M3Eq44diG9GCJCHtjWujDNcOdBIZ9g_EszrSPnjBniCIeZinIijphE4CuVOPa5ZsPo3lcLaNP5rmUnEkwGkJLmoeBuIlsiQyLMy30-BKBHBpJ)
25. [itssverona.it](https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQH2GFI7SLMoplTPh-O3QcBvH_oSManCHDxar__UEGopfeSrwM3eesZTyWA1kA0kd-m7_NX9waZWrYkamBmytrLH7olnNR25vrc2KATIc1Pqk6inu8wn5w5idCGo74mYHXRm1bmUJxbjTmTyVNKzYCLdMFPWWE3zdOokK5iIFN6JWtww8D-DRW8=)
26. [robert-schuman.eu](https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQH0mlRFM9ib4q407Ju1kGG_hev3U6WiXcoUhCjLxCNoG_6V230P8yOjyl5mjaiMjZ1u0DnHm0L6XauXCU_JyTxEuZhzoRLlOgqdYS4g9xHT3-Gb7lxl5MQK-EPNNuS1RnjwNR7RjI78Zg8hdAguJ1eJjXsXaSq05vWU_rNrvuYB)
27. [lse.ac.uk](https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEXJF46AdMmZYuiiMi0kUDGmUUqvbAe4XKHrVVNhTYelkYasvxKk4lyb98G02eh6y_VVkM_N8ftjUtw07akhgrCB_pa8M2BvhHueP_hifKUHAG68bhwCIp1Pi7g6tLuxeSnSzVNZBNPaQ==)
28. [cultureactioneurope.org](https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEtGHHli8piIkXksHl5IvOWfHYC6ryldUAZCD1z4VrTFbFM7dAi4KNTGAb2Am5jItpnJEytSEe_WzuZJ6Y3OX_DHDneotvcMQi3wzLkn2bfiMT4I23l8JNdvQs-MqZZysWi2rOC5F0OvMum056XTTVEEGqEaUQnv2ZwrIk=)
29. [epthinktank.eu](https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQH0h-P7rdV-tWSfm0cLyPTBUg833p6c55O4Q4S8g3W_Ynrpkwrj9qA1s2c04aDmMBrl1-nokhfYRX-CZjivmN1b37YRK82aaKmqqmwcx3_DXG2SPOqTYC_1aDKyBCqymxxL2mJkFznZRKlpAiIUYzUNo0vqbEZJ_aszUz374IGvvg==)
30. [realinstitutoelcano.org](https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEXr19DPD6AZ5QJhht9EZseIyAi7E-f4d7SVOnyA6XyDtps5g2i-ZYQM_uMZLeFTp9gM6eGYb0mA8NoKDs3xsL20-jzp55-i_YIw5fl_2bTZB4UkBuaKi6A1dlUhQvQpAh-8jGpd7rTYR1uSYat5sLVoPH4uNFeUSXtVMs8VD0lL6uqtfkwxvoh8tzl4Qs1IIG_-3l8mgU2fKrocTdedp6AguNH6v4GL7laM-wg6ejM3pGafLnWdC7kOfzupDmOfDLQhQmjseiLjQWw2H4CDJGhUJqsT4YY31TwLdVRVUo=)
31. [carnegieendowment.org](https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFro2LYNiewgC3iOUgk9ZomeOR-XYS69Kl0N9yP9tU53lm6Zs1CMWg-BZUsmAR-oLlQG2u_ZBhSXKzdBz4pSzM5GJ4FxeW8EA9FRzGLaoNmRbLmrERnNn8JEqxuzI94RI72GsMhTgs2pKf34D2xvJdHo9JJT38OfkEudQsb0CT4oPMJvXxR)
32. [europa.eu](https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGHLfoaw6q5Q8Y5D4wW_qAHKr7j4T6BGl3EarP3e3_zUgQsWiniVtb0I8BV1VqxI26B76RUIFhm8kKRnQAeqDkLuawj8KjqCbsqq4dAo8WO-ParVRNnyx1zr1kmPyDBu7eIVY9XkbmWkMlOR9DtX8soeGzFEeUvSQw=)
33. [iris-france.org](https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFwq-mFsU5Q8v9aUTtbvdOC8qrSwkfVv_4sibrDESND0WbelENB3hIKdhkSMMtvTAomDgTSEAyzZlo-s35nj8_cwx_5bpE6tXy5QRirrYfB3ikjaCWE51nuo_xif-QY1Ug2IbwDxqz-xAt5GmRxJvWRBfLIN5AOHp-u)
34. [eias.org](https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEEw9aDs7xxBeuV3Lnd-6N9kt7MqVPmIBSFBeMElETU9VP4C-IvX_J_QcSgpLJRvyu6NCRurn9-OgCz4ajzlbd0ig-ltutCpYA_XTHcz0svnw8CMKMTfmV56ZrCzJ4m7duzLicKN_uRRH6d3lnp9y7ouOztAxh-_-MqTN_Un8X_7ul588JsPzvKRn3wbi3C0QB_qAV76bQromDJA-fg)
35. [indianarrative.com](https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQF6sQwvpLsRi9AsacIbsNanBJ-1u4K7GxAF4PmF8uh8zU_czLhieq57iyX93-ip56wm3EAAuYQCoZVAn1FxZO4ZH5F7xfG_wLRZOPtpDH5tVU4ybABegsmLLzrcGldUHfcTTH3iRddgJIewu3y01eKvun21uw-bF2pBLNSmxVdB4A8MkC9FNuVIUfH8JmRgBSb2juQfEaEAMFx1T4KEvolWG71j1xgXkDNSLsH331fYZW3Ubg==)
36. [brookings.edu](https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQH9IRPnyHuIuUmR0oHgQQUpPtDAV2GPk5d8CaRgBt6Q-8YyYfdXg8AgXztLq3EldXTg_gYXH7c-YtSnDEkHWa4bmxcF0ISlpLVssS88uoWwcG0SbhLD6ZAffxqyKUar8YaSAwhO79PrKiyofds8Z1SmqZ9Tq11O-k64Gyi4FOwVIwaZt0lR8qDD_HTrNYcC)
37. [europa.eu](https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQExmdvlHnl19iFt67MXP22WnzkQlaJ_4wyA3s3B3eZ75244JOOwsMKqIcnwLN294e5KBWDSfKJcDuX4q7ZLitUOgsP2QyHtwJjuU6GZKM0azRwfjh2ZSNLttbLzwPd82_ayy_U0No1BFCxTkdb337pkM9l9-sXc0WLa9ox0WQry1X4tHuWmTx8=)
38. [parapolitika.gr](https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFM2nxdQSxnTQ9DNorFM62_7xf-QqKUs8FcNE9PM6LMoND-9AYXDmXiSIKwTDLOuWfdeieig_9v6h9V8VYikC-KjGkc1rr_6_0WazUZlAwRWBOxYYwt3WDYREK0f_yVV1DRghatxqYPePuIFjId49CDhXsP0qtZnj6TVEhIAwtYBe4AMAWKIkXpLFta7FvJCh9CylvZ3yp2AEs7uc8WbLXhxQ==)
39. [europa.eu](https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHn61OoVC52lZT41mgWJZlc6zptGs6OYIIJrtHIkuZ_YwPUVHEkMTHA7Vd40PRZVf8qEfgqaqYjn5HUq65S65r0p3jsVKwhO-SZ3U9SmDULPvqMignLyXeQEq1_uW4Xmadb6MnrTUJQGNw0ZMEOYLa3INRmW6CrQbqDogv3UyHgTL1k-jiIoyYLVmk_7QCsJN1kguDxBjWujBU=)
40. [kyivindependent.com](https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGSQ2CCXWRrjWn_vqXXGRASqiDY8w4_TbiEqfy6IoXjDFrRjOdPop40fpQvd96SAHtpaDjbGroDmH1ColqLJTbIMUfHd2P1S9MxDU2UZCVIfJN4305v2qc1PnmLU5IlphvcKcaYJZoxR1-p-2KpD7E3eaxmJMXY6ugjhvjfT34J-1Tc6gxHowmzuQ==)
41. [jasoninstitute.com](https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGwEhqQekoyfbILh0svkxIicjF2UMfilgptj04S1WzJU78kY3B6APMLnElD33hemkDW078SnC957RQFzZse1l4-_aQmjXbp1jd6at2dPZ-j_3MY7aoePQBhRrcnml45PI1seWmfAg6vZ6WiJbYtvib2r9Is2a9nr7gBu_a80IOuNwkGOg==)
42. [bruegel.org](https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGYxtdqGTfap74LiL_bPZKx5cuXluKYgYGs1K1uRJUTclP5ggc0HwIhAzGGkcZtDGsOTaB98VkR0_7ncL5yFapZDYnibaoWdE4Dn_87urbuhPk6o-IuioTkC2DFXrBI5Ri6cUaeCunOZPU0Zi4_UBn4gjTRmnsYAozHj1wqVmQ4Wrtr2C7x0oLO9T8zhtOcF7Ix)